Bitcoin Weekly forecast: We can expect more short-term gains

Avatar James Lochner 2 years ago

After retreating towards $22,000, it seems that the bulls are ready to retake control in the short term. This weekly Bitcoin forecast shows a good technical and fundamental scenario.

At the time of this writing, BTC is trading at $22,698. It accumulates a gain of 2.21% in the last 24 hours, and 7.47% in the last 7 days.

A large whale moves its coins, while Bitcoin falls below the realized price

During the week that is about to end, it was observed as one of the largest BTC whales, moved half of its holdings. This logically generated negativism among short-term traders.

However, a wallet tracking conducted by analyst Ki Young Ju, notes that it is likely that such a transaction was an internal transfer of the Gemini exchange, so there was no selling pressure.

Tracking the movement made by a large BTC whale. Source: Crypto Quant.
Tracking the movement made by a large BTC whale. Source: Crypto Quant.

As a counterpart to this “negative” signal, we see that since June 13 the price of Bitcoin has been trading below the realized price, which is usually a bottom signal of a bear market.

During the bottom of the 2018/2019 corrective cycle, the price remained below this threshold for 20 weeks. The most recent time this happened was in March 2020, and Bitcoin only lasted a week below the realized price.

We must consider that the rapid price rebound in March 2020 was largely related to the reaction of central banks, to the crisis caused by COVID-19.

With the recent rally, the price has been looking to stay above this indicator; however, now the question is whether it will really manage to use it as a support, or, instead, it will fall again in search of lows. The truth is that the few times this has happened in the history of Bitcoin, it has preceded strong price rallies.

NOTE: The realized price of Bitcoin is an indicator that consists of calculating the aggregate value of a cryptocurrency network, multiplying each token by the last time it was moved.

Weekly Bitcoin forecast based on technical analysis

Today we see on the daily chart Bitcoin vs TetherUS a fairly clear behavior, generating a positive weekly forecast.

After breaking through a resistance zone around $22,000, and rising to $24,000, now the price is using that same resistance zone to make ground.

The demand around $22,000 seems to be the starting point of a new upward momentum, for which the goal is to reach $28,000.

The 38.20% Fibonacci level is being respected quite cleanly. At the moment, most of the odds are on the side of a short-term bullish scenario.

Only a quick and sudden sale, which returns the price to the range between $21,500 and $19,000, would put the positive scenario at risk.

Near $19,000 there is a strong demand zone to resume the long-term trend, but we still need to be cautious

It seems that after falling towards $17,500, the bottom of the bear market has been marked, thanks to the continuous buying pressure on $19,000, thus creating strong support for the long-term trend.

However, we still have a relevant medium-term bearish direction, which must change in order to expect a major rally.

At the moment, it seems that the Bitcoin price is making a necessary respite from that direction in the medium term, at least towards 38.20% of Fibonacci ($29,000).

However, with the continuous background signals that we have been seeing over the past few weeks, it is feasible that the rally will gain strength in the near future, and finish wrapping up that bearish force that has been causing so much negativism in the crypto market.

Bitcoin forecast based on an analysis of the weekly chart. Source: TradingView.
Bitcoin forecast based on an analysis of the weekly chart. Source: TradingView.

All our publications are of an informative nature, so in no case should they be regarded as investment advice.

Written By