Bitcoin Weekly forecast: The rally is rapidly losing strength, and now the price is again in danger

Avatar James Lochner 2 years ago

Bitcoin has been falling over the past few hours, which creates a slightly negative weekly forecast. The lack of determination of the bulls is endangering the price again, which seems to be looking at the surrounding support at $18,500.

At the time of this writing, BTC is trading at $20,891, accumulating a loss of 3.68% in the last 24 hours, although maintaining a gain of 9.17% in the last 7 days.

While we saw a relevant rally this week, now those gains are on the line. The question at the moment is whether we will see the bulls returning soon with more strength, or, on the contrary, new lows will be reached.

Whale activity is a concern

In the weekly summary of Crypto Quant metrics, this time they focused on the behavior of whales, because sudden movements are observed there.

On-chain activity remained relatively calm; however, whales are depositing large amounts of altcoins on major exchanges.

Crypto Quant analysts indicate that this may mean several scenarios:

  1. Exchanges are preparing a new product
  2. OTC trading with other whales, using custodial services
  3. Cryptocurrency hedge funds being liquidated
  4. Traders who open short/long positions in altcoins as collateral

They indicate that scenarios 2 and 4 are the most likely. However, it is rare to see whales depositing their coins on exchanges, when we are at what many consider the bottom.

The community assures that this behavior is negative.

Most Crypto Quant users agree that this behavior is a bearish signal.
The majority of Crypto Quant users consider this behavior to be a bearish signal.

Bitcoin weekly forecast: The price is locked in a small range

After a slight rebound, we now see the price returning, thus creating an interesting consolidation rectangle.

Generally, these rectangles work as a break before continuing the trend. However, when they form above an important support zone, after a strong momentum (as is currently happening), it is feasible that they will be crossed against the trend, in order to make a healthy retracement.

At the moment, it seems that we will see the price looking for that support zone around $19,000 again. But then, because a broader upward respite is necessary at this point, we may see the price crossing the rectangle resistance, located at $22,500.

Weekly Bitcoin forecast, based on a technical analysis of the daily chart. Source: TradingView.
Weekly Bitcoin forecast, based on a technical analysis of the daily chart. Source: TradingView.

The price is still not making a healthy pullback

If we plot the Fibonacci tool from the high point of the last bearish impulse, we see that the recent breather did not even reach 23.60%. It is normal for the price to retreat to a minimum of 38.20% Fibonacci before continuing with the previous trend.

The support at $18,500 is quite strong, and it may continue to make a floor for a pullback to begin in the near future. $28,850 is the next level of interest.

However, as long as we do not see the bulls appear with determination, that support level at $18,500 will remain in play. Losing that level could cause volatility to increase quickly. In case that happens, the ground on the weekly chart would be cleared up to $11,500.

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