After getting support at $19,000, Bitcoin rebounded to the upside again, until it found resistance again at $21,500, thus generating a weekly forecast that leans slightly on the side of sellers.
At the time of this writing, BTC is trading at $21,200, accumulating a slight gain of 1.70% in the last 24 hours, and 0.80% in the last 7 days.
The rally from $19,000 triggered a widespread bullish tide in the crypto market. Ethereum was the one that stood out the most, breaking through a significant resistance at $1,250.
However, the low determination of buyers to continue driving prices higher, calls into question the strength of the recent rally.
The overall sentiment in the US crypto market is negative
In the weekly Crypto Quant summary, the forecast we can get for Bitcoin is not very hopeful.
Because most U.S. brokerage firms and institutional investors use Coinbase, we can analyze the behavior on this exchange to find out where these participants are moving to.
To begin with, the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is lower than on other exchanges, which means that US investors are selling. It is possible that this is due to how sensitive these investors are to macro conditions, which is currently quite unstable.
With the publication of the data of 9.1% year-on-year inflation in the United States, there was a noticeable drop in the Coinbase premium, which is considered a negative signal.
Despite this, the bullish sentiment among investors in the futures market is increasing, and this can be seen in the Taker Buy and Sell Ratio indicator. While this can be considered a positive signal, it only serves for short-term traders.
Bitcoin weekly forecast
On the BTC vs USDT daily chart we can see how the price has found resistance at $21,600, thus closing in a clear lateral range with support at $19,000.
The current scenario does not seem so pessimistic. It still seems likely to expect a broader rally. However, the bulls’ lack of determination puts recent gains at risk.
At the moment, the scenario is slightly tilted from the buyers, but it would only gain strength if they manage to break through the resistance at $21,600 in the coming hours. If this happens, then we could expect a good rally, perhaps up to $28,850.
Otherwise, a sudden increase in sales volume will take us back to a minimum of $19,000. There is still a fairly strong demand area down there and it extends up to approximately $17,500. It seems that the worst thing we can see currently is a strong volatility towards that low zone. Losing it would make way for sales up to $11,500, but at the moment, this scenario is unlikely.
A broader pullback is still likely, but the low determination of buyers puts the price at risk in the short term
We see that the price is clearly being defended on an important support around $19,000, after a strong bearish momentum.
The latest impulse, which began more than three months ago, has not yet given way to a healthy respite, and it seems increasingly likely that it is about to begin.
In this weekly forecast we see that Bitcoin should correct up to at least 23.60% Fibonacci in the short term. The healthiest would be a pullback up to 38.20%, which coincides with the resistance level at $28,850.
However, the low strength of the bulls continues to postpone this scenario. And if this continues, they could give way to bearish volatility in the coming days.
As I discussed in previous paragraphs, we should currently see the resistance at $21,500 be overcome to expect a broader rally. If it doesn’t happen soon, it doesn’t seem far-fetched to see rapid sales in search of the $17,000.
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